2026 Midterm Model
Mustycaribou Forecasts
A disciplined election forecast desk for seat-level ratings, control scenarios, and transparent model judgment. Every call is built to be inspected before election night and audited after it.
Featured Forecast Map
2026 Midterms
Control range
House and Senate battlegrounds updating from the public board
Democratic edge
Toss-up
Republican edge
Current Projection
Control board
U.S. House435 seats
Democrats
Republicans
U.S. Senate35 seats up
Democrats
Republicans
Projected seat totals include safe seats not individually rated. See the full board on the 2026 Forecast page.
Track record
2024, in full — including the misses
How this works