Mustycaribou Forecasts

Professional election intelligence
By Preston · last updated

The 2026 forecast, rated race by race.

Seat-level ratings for all 35 Senate races and every 2026 governor's race, with the reasoning published before election night and audited after it.

    2026 Senate map 2026 Midterms

    Swipe the map to see every state →

    Democratic edge Toss-up Republican edge

    2026 control board

    Full board, race by race →
    U.S. Senate35 seats up
    Democrats
    Republicans
    U.S. Governors36 races
    Democrats
    Republicans

    Projected seat totals include safe seats not individually rated. See the full board on the 2026 Forecast page.

    Races on the edge

    All ratings →

    Every 2026 race currently rated Toss-up or Lean. These are the contests that move the seat count.

    2024, in full — including the misses

    Race-by-race breakdown →

    2024 statewide races

    98.2% of statewide races called correctly

    Every call is archived with the predicted margin next to the actual result — the misses included.

    The short version

    Full methodology →