Final presidential forecast
Before election day
Final forecast map. Blue states were predicted Democratic, red states were predicted Republican. The audit map below compares this forecast with the actual result.
2024 election archive
2024 Presidential Election
A final accounting of the presidential forecast: what the map got right, where the miss concentrated, and how close the margins were in the states that mattered.
Final archive
Interactive audit
Prediction Accuracy Map
Winner predicted correctly
Winner predicted incorrectly
Forecast performance
Dashboard
2024 Senate archive
2024 Senate Election
A state-by-state audit of the Senate forecast margins recovered from the uploaded election file, with the overall 33/34 winner record shown alongside the margin-performance dashboard.
33/34 correct
| State | Predicted Margin | Actual Margin | Margin Error | Winner Correct |
|---|
Pennsylvania was the only wrong Senate winner call. The polling miss was substantial, but the Trump effect in Pennsylvania was something I should have weighted more heavily, especially because a similar underestimation appeared in 2016.